Downtown Living Movin' Up

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the populations of many downtowns around the country are growing instead of shrinking, according to a new survey.

The survey--conducted by The Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy and the Fannie Mae Foundation--looked at 21 American cities and found that all but one of them expect the number of their downtown residents to grow by 2010.

The downtown trend holds for Northeastern and Midwestern cities with well-established downtown residential districts and for Sunbelt central business districts that have not traditionally supported much housing, according to the survey.

The city of Houston expects its downtown population to quadruple by 2010 while Memphis and Seattle anticipate twice as many downtown residents in the next 12 years.

Even cities that have lost population for decades--Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit--expect that the number of downtown residents will rise. Philadelphia's downtown population has grown by 20 percent since 1960 and predictions indicate another 10,000 residents will live in downtown Philadelphia by 2010, a 13 percent increase--this in a city with 600,000 fewer people overall now than it had in 1950. Of the cities surveyed, only Atlanta projects a loss in population, by 19.5 percent.

The survey authors say anecdotal evidence suggests people are living downtown because they want to be near their work places and cultural amenities, and because they enjoy a bustling urban environment. Without a standard definition, each city was asked to conservatively define its own downtown--for New York City, for example, that translated into the Wall Street section of Manhattan only.

Selected Downtown Population Growth, 1998-2010

CityCurrent Downtown Population (A)2010 Projected Population (B)Percent Change
Atlanta13,257 (1997) 10,674 -19.5
Baltimore 13,800 (1995) 14,600 5.8
Boston 21,625 (1990) 23,580 9.0
Chicago 115,341 152,295 32.0
Cleveland 6,400 21,000 228.1
Columbus 3,800 5,800 52.6
Dallas 3,486 6,429 84.4
Denver 3,480 (1997) 9,250 165.8
Detroit 32,920 (1995) 34,753 5.6
Houston 2,374 9,574 303.3
Los Angeles 26,600 (1996) 27,000 1.5
Memphis 6,21014,000 125.4
Miami 17,065 (1997) 33,420 95.8
Milwaukee 9,900 13,500 36.4
New York (C) 19,473 35,000 79.7
Philadelphia 75,000 85,000 13.3
Portland 10,31514,694 42.5
San Antonio 20,910 23,600 12.9
Seattle 15,236 (1997) 33,600 120.5
St. Louis 7,860 10,360 31.8

(A) Source: Cities reported population based on census figures and household units.
(B) Source: Cities determined projection based on developments underway, building permits, and anticipated real estate projects.
(C) Includes Wall Street area only.

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